US GDP Growth Unrevised At 1.9% In Q4

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 1.9% in the December quarter, revised estimates from the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday.

According to a survey of 10 economists by The Wall Street Journal, the resource-rich economy will show growth of 0.8% in the fourth quarter from the third, and grow by 2.0% from the same quarter a year ago. Meanwhile, the CSO has also marginally revised upwards the GDP estimates for the first and the second quarters to 7.2% and 7.4%, respectively. "When I look at third quarter more carefully, half the quarter, including the festive season when spending is high, was gone by the time demonetization kicked in".

"India is forecast to have the fastest-growing economy among all G-20 countries with growth put at 7.1 per cent for 2017, down from a previous expectation of 7.5 per cent because of the effects of demonetisation", Moody's said. The CSO estimates the agriculture growth at a whopping 6% in the third quarter. It seems that the CSO may have to revise its agriculture growth estimate of 6% downwards in the coming days.

The federal statistics office retained its growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2017 at 7.1 per cent.

The government announced demonetisation or note ban of Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 notes on November 8 midnight to curb black money and terrorism and promote digital transactions. The growth numbers were better than those projected by the RBI (6.9%) and global agencies like IMF (6.6%).

More news: Kings acquire goalie Ben Bishop in trade with Lightning

"The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2015-16", it said. This reflects poor consumer durables output sales in the last few months.

"The numbers completely negate the kind of negative projections and speculations which were made about the impact of demonetisation", Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters after the data release. At constant prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 35.55 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against Rs 35.35 lakh crore year-on-year.

Estimates for growth this year range between 2 percent and 3 percent. "Had the economy been weak, we could not have carried out this exercise successfully", he said.

As Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian last month said the official GDP figures may not fully reflect the "real and significant hardships" experienced by the informal sector, in which an estimated nine out of 10 Indian workers are employed.

  • Rita Burton